Live exports to the Middle East are likely to be down by more than 1 million sheep and lambs this year, and the outlook for 2005 is not much better. Australia's post-drought stock shortage, the rising value of the dollar, and the suspension of trade to Saudi Arabia have all combined for a forecast decline of 22 per cent this year. But the trade faces an even greater threat - the animal rights campaign against the trade has gathered momentum since last year's Cormo Express debacle. Prominent Australians have joined the protests and at least one American retailer has banned Australian wool products.